IMF Chief: AI Could Boost GCC Non-Oil GDP by 2.8 Percent - Largest Diversification Opportunity

IMF's Assessment of AI Opportunity for GCC

At the World Government Summit in Dubai on February 3, 2026, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that artificial intelligence could boost GCC non-oil GDP by up to 2.8 percent. This represents the largest opportunity for economic diversification away from hydrocarbon dependency in the region's modern history.

UAE Leading Global AI Adoption

The UAE leads globally with 64% of its working-age population using AI—the highest rate worldwide. This demonstrates the region's readiness for AI-driven transformation and the population's embrace of AI technologies. IMF estimates show that AI could fuel global productivity by 0.8 percentage points per year, with GCC benefiting even more significantly.

Economic Diversification Imperative

For economies long dependent on oil exports, AI presents an enormous opportunity to build new sources of growth and economic resilience. The 2.8% potential boost to non-oil GDP is substantial and could fundamentally reshape GCC economies, reducing vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and creating sustainable, knowledge-based growth.

Policy Framework Requirements

Georgieva emphasized that capturing this opportunity requires coordinated policy frameworks across three dimensions:

• Macro policies supporting investment and innovation while not encouraging automation at expense of people
• Guardrails ensuring AI safety, fairness, and trustworthiness without stifling innovation
• Cooperation and partnerships enabling knowledge transfer and data sharing across governments and organizations

Labor Market Disruption

The IMF also warned that 40% of jobs globally will be impacted by AI (60% in advanced economies), with young people and the middle class hit hardest by disruption. Countries with strong digital infrastructure, skilled labor forces, and robust regulatory frameworks will capture the largest and fastest benefits. Those without may fall behind.

This makes policy coordination and workforce development critical for ensuring that GCC economies capture AI's benefits broadly rather than concentrating gains among a small segment of the population.